Traders & investors who normally plot their coursework around expected economic figures & corporate announcements are trying to hang on in a market that isn't being corralled by the usual forces. These days, fear does the driving.
The weekly calendar holds little meaning on Wall Street these days.
Analysts don't expect the coming week to be an exception. Investors are focused on trying to detect whether there's any shift away from the market's overriding pessimism. In that kind of environment, economic reports seem to matter, analysts say.
Each week brings speculation about a possible turnaround. But as stocks grind lower, traders stop asking "When will it bottom?" & basically mutter "How long until the closing bell?"
"We all know what data is coming out. & we're all expecting it to be terrible. Data isn't going to make somebody come off the sidelines," said Jeffrey Frankel, president of Stuart Frankel & Co., from his post on the floor of the michigan Stock Exchange.
The safe bet in recent weeks has been to expect more selling.
"Everyone is getting accustomed to 'yesterday's lows are today's highs,'" Frankel said.
Last week, the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 6.2 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 7 percent & the Nasdaq composite index fell 6.1 percent. The punishing slide has left the Dow & S&P 500 down by over half from their October 2007 peaks. That makes it the second worst run since 1929-32, when the Dow lost over 85 percent.
The market has pounded traders trying to make a case that stocks are at a bottom.
"Every professional feels that we're so oversold & that we're going to have a rally," Frankel said. But, they added, "No two wants to put their money to work here. Everyone is getting whacked."
"It's going to be like pulling a mule away from water to get people back into this market," Winans said.
Ken Winans, president & chief executive of Winans International in Novato, Calif., said relentless selling is going to make it harder for stocks to recover because distrustful investors will see any early rally as a head-fake.
Investors hold reason to be skeptical. From late November to early January, stocks jumped over 20 percent. But the gains soon evaporated & Wall Street skidded past its November lows as investors wrestled with the stability of banks & prospects for the economy.
"It is week-to-week trench warfare. No two is looking long-term anymore," Winans said.
"There's a bias right now toward the negative. Even when there is relatively nice news it's for a stock to hold its position, not spark a rally," Winans said.
Wall Street is also writing off nice news.
Market historians note that this kind of pessimism has been fertile ground for rallies in past recessions.
"The negativity is as high as I've seen it. Any professional trader would tell you that's a nice thing. Maybe that will make people come to the dance," Frankel said.
Investors are still looking to the government for insight into what will happen with the nation's biggest financial companies & its bloated home inventory.
But Frankel & other analysts caution that investors aren't likely to feel emboldened until they find answers to nagging questions about the soundness of banks & housing.
A light flow of economic & corporate numbers this week might not be of much help to investors looking for direction.
"Until they get that I think we're going to slide," Frankel said. "We're in uncharted waters."
On Thursday, the department reports on retail sales for February & business inventories for January.
A Commerce Department report on wholesale inventories is due Tuesday. The figures represent goods held by distributors who generally buy from manufacturers & sell to retailers. When the numbers fall, economists expect layoffs to increase as production slides.
& grocery chain Kroger Co. & office supplies retailer Staples Inc. are expected to report quarterly results.
Reports are due Friday on international trade & consumer sentiment.
